How Luka Doncic-led Dallas Mavericks can advance to NBA Cup’s knockout round

PORTLAND — The Dallas Mavericks aren’t shy about their motivations for a mid-December trip to Las Vegas.

It’s not about gambling, but if they win the 2024 NBA Cup, they could walk away richer than they arrive.

“That $500K. Keeping it simple. We all want the $500K,” Quentin Grimes said, referring to the prize for winning the league’s second-annual in-season tournament.

The Mavericks can be one step closer to that goal if they clinch the Western Conference’s wild card spot Tuesday — the final day of the Group Play stage. But they’ll need quite a few things to go their way to advance to the knockout round (played in NBA team markets on Dec. 10 and Dec. 11).

The clinching scenarios the NBA released Monday morning show 16 teams in the hunt for the single-elimination stage, including the remaining three teams in West Group C. The Golden State Warriors clinched the group by winning their first three games, but Dallas, Denver and Memphis are vying for the single Wild Card berth that is up for grabs.

The Mavericks (13-8, 2-1 NBA Cup) will host the Grizzlies (14-7, 1-2) at American Airlines Center on Tuesday, and both teams are rolling. Dallas has won four straight games and eight of its last nine. Memphis has six consecutive victories, tied for the longest active win streak in the NBA.

Dallas lost a heartbreaker in its NBA Cup opener to the Warriors in Klay Thompson’s return to San Francisco, but dealt its largest loss of the season to New Orleans (1-3) and beat the Nuggets (1-2) without Luka Doncic.

The Mavericks can’t just win outright Tuesday and get in. They’ll need assistance from a few rival teams.

Here are the three scenarios for Dallas to clinch the West’s Wild Card spot and advance in the tournament:

1. A win over Memphis, combined with an Oklahoma City (15-5) win over Utah (4-16) and a Portland (8-13) loss to the LA Clippers (13-9).
2. A win over Memphis, winning the tiebreaker over Portland and whoever finishes second in West Group B.
3. An Oklahoma City loss to Utah, combined with a Portland loss to the LA Clippers and a Denver (10-8) win over the Warriors (12-7), along with a tiebreaker win over Denver and Memphis and whoever finishes second in West Groups A & B.

Note: For Dallas to have a chance to win the tiebreaker over Denver and Memphis, the Mavericks must lose by fewer than 24 points or in overtime.

The easiest path for the Mavericks to clinch the Wild Card spot is to defeat the Grizzlies in a blowout win to clinch second place in West Group C behind the Warriors. Dallas’ lopsided win over New Orleans played a pivotal role in its +41 point differential, the highest of any other team in the West aside from Houston, which already clinched West Group A.

Daniel Gafford said the Mavericks understand the implications and treat NBA Cup games as if they were normal regular season matchups, despite the flashy courts.

“We have the right approach to it,” Gafford said. “We come out and we have fun playing the game, and we just go out and give it 110%. We work for the outcome that we want. If we don’t get that outcome, we get back to the drawing board and figure it out afterwards.”

The Mavericks will still earn a portion of the NBA Cup pool prize simply for qualifying for the quarterfinals. The allocations of the pool increase depending on how far a team progresses in the tournament. Players on the losing quarterfinals team will earn $51,497, while players who lose in the semifinals will receive $102,994. The runner-up in the championship game will receive $205,998. Lastly, players on the winning team in the championship game will receive $514,970 each.

“The tournament is exciting,” said Mavericks coach Jason Kidd. “The players are talking about it. The fans are talking about it. Every point means something. Everyone’s trying to get to Vegas.”

The semifinal and championship games will be played in Las Vegas on Dec. 14 and Dec. 17, respectively.

Grimes reiterated the importance of Tuesday’s Cup game after Sunday’s win in Portland.

“We gotta get it,” Grimes said. “We did a good job of getting the point differential pretty high. We gotta go into this game with a completely different mindset and not worry about this week. We have to come in and try to keep that flow. $500K is on the line. We want that real bag, for sure.”